
Happy weekend
As we kick off the year, it’s a good moment to pause and look back at what actually happened in Nigeria’s real estate market in 2025, beyond the headlines, forecasts, and assumptions.
One of the biggest surprises of the year didn’t come from new construction booms or sudden demand spikes, but from the data itself. Today’s edition focuses on how a single statistical shift, Nigeria’s GDP rebasing, quietly changed the way the real estate sector is measured, understood, and valued, revealing a market far larger than many previously assumed.
Today’s edition is a lookback at what the numbers really tell us, which predictions held up, and how this data-driven reset reshapes expectations for investors, developers, and policymakers heading into 2026.
Last Time the Market Was This Expensive, Investors Waited 14 Years to Break Even
In 1999, the S&P 500 peaked. Then it took 14 years to gradually recover by 2013.
Today? Goldman Sachs sounds crazy forecasting 3% returns for 2024 to 2034.
But we’re currently seeing the highest price for the S&P 500 compared to earnings since the dot-com boom.
So, maybe that’s why they’re not alone; Vanguard projects about 5%.
In fact, now just about everything seems priced near all time highs. Equities, gold, crypto, etc.
But billionaires have long diversified a slice of their portfolios with one asset class that is poised to rebound.
It’s post war and contemporary art.
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Nigeria’s ₦41 Trillion Property Reality — What 2025 Taught Us
Following the rebasing exercise, real estate emerged as a much bigger contributor to national output, with the sector’s value estimated at over ₦41 trillion. This was not the result of a sudden expansion in physical development, but a more accurate accounting of existing activity across residential, commercial, and informal segments of the market.
What changed was not the market itself, but how it was measured.
This distinction matters. It reminds us that year-to-year shifts in headline numbers do not always reflect real-world demand or supply dynamics. Sometimes, they reflect better data.
Predictions Versus Reality in 2025
At the start of 2025, expectations for the real estate sector were cautious but optimistic. We anticipated moderate growth, resilient rental yields, gradual mortgage expansion, and steady activity driven by urbanisation and population pressure.
Looking back, several of these assumptions held up. Rental yields in major cities remained strong. Housing demand did not collapse despite inflationary pressures. Government housing initiatives moved forward, even if at a slower pace than hoped.
Where expectations fell short was in scale and speed. Mortgage uptake remained constrained by high interest rates and affordability challenges. Supply gaps persisted. Formal housing delivery still lagged population growth.
What the GDP rebasing did was place all of this within a much larger economic frame.
In case you missed it, here’s the link to the full breakdown
FX MARKET SNAPSHOT TODAY
USD > NGN | 1,468.33 | Up by 0.4% |
GDP > NGN | 1,979.04 | Up by 0.02% |
EUR > NGN | 1,720.52 | Up by 0.01% |
CAD > NGN | 1,069.55 | Up by 0.00% |
Economy Watch
FG Unveils 2026 Growth Acceleration Strategy to Drive Jobs and Investment
The Federal Government of Nigeria has officially launched the 2026 Growth Acceleration Strategy, a comprehensive economic roadmap designed to stimulate job creation, attract domestic and foreign investment, and ensure macroeconomic stability.
The strategy, unveiled by the Ministry of Finance and the Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, outlines a series of fiscal and monetary interventions aimed at transitioning the Nigerian economy from stabilization to sustainable expansion.
Kano State Government Approves N6.9 Billion for Infrastructure and Welfare Projects
The Kano State Executive Council has approved over N6.9 billion for the execution of various infrastructure, education, and social welfare projects across the state. The decision was reached during the council's 36th meeting, presided over by Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf at the Government House.
The Commissioner for Information and Internal Affairs, Ibrahim Waiya, disclosed the details of the approvals during a press briefing, noting that the funds are aimed at accelerating development and improving the welfare of residents.
Quote of the day:
“In the long run, it is not the market that matters, but the fundamentals.” — Benjamin Graham
Produced by: Amarachi Okeke
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